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Last week’s data (5/6)
WHERE economic activity happens also matters (2/6)
What SA’s 1980s debt crisis tells us about today’s issues (1/6)
Warning lights flashing in the FSR (31/5)
The buck stops here (30/5)
What happened to the rand last week? (29/5)
What the MPC says (26/5)
I hope I am wrong about today’s repo rate decision (25/5)
Inflation should be lower already (24/5)
What the US debt stand-off means for us (23/5)
Why this week’s repo rate decision matters (22/5)
By the numbers (19/5)
Are municipalities too big to fail? (18/5)
Q1 unemployment (17/5)
What the three gaps tell us (16/5)
What is worse than loadshedding? (15/5)
The rand stumbles (12/5)
The fiscal stance is under pressure too (11/5)
Food security, subsistence farming and grants (10/5)
Policy is made under constraints (9/5)
Are we at the end of the interest rate hiking cycle? (8/5)
Do you think loadshedding will end this year? (5/5)
Car sales tell us a lot about how the economy is doing (4/5)
Indicator: PMI (3/5)
Indicator: Credit extension (2/5)
The future of work, on Workers Day (1/5)
Indicator: March PPI (28/4)
On Freedom Day (27/4)
Productivity matters (26/4)
Just slow growth, or a technical recession? (25/4)
The condition our condition is in (electricity edition) (24/4)
Are you selling the country short (21/4)
Higher inflation, brought to you by loadshedding (20/4)
The dangers of a low-growth trap (19/4)
Inflation in March (18/4)
All the news that matters (17/4)
e-toll 2023 (14/4)
Indicators: Slower growth ahead (13/4)
Investment conferences and policy uncertainty (12/4)
Not a failed state, but are we back in 1991? (11/4)
South Africa is not a failed state (6/4)
Indicators: PMI and vehicle sales (5/4)
Government finances are looking OK (4/4)
Food security and hunger (3/4)
The 50bps increase in the repo rate surprised everyone (31/3)
Prices of basic foodstuffs and the Competition Commission (30/3)
Policy uncertainty is way up (29/3)
Everything points to a 25bps repo rate increase (28/3)
The wage ceiling vs the salary increases (27/3)
The hits just keep on coming (24/3)
CPI inflation is up again (23/3)
Reconsidering growth after human rights day (22/3)
Waiting for the base effect (21/3)
Price stability or financial stability? (20/3)
Indicators: Retail sales and agribusiness confidence (17/3)
And what about the inflation rate? (16/3)
Indicators: Manufacturing and mining contracted in January (15/3)
The start of a banking crisis, or the slow deflation of the second tech bubble? (14/3)
The US labour market remains tight (13/3)
The weaker rand is not only about loadshedding (10/3)
Business confidence takes a loadshedding hit (9/3)
It is official, loadshedding kills economic growth (8/3)
There are two reasons to keep an eye on today’s Q4 GDP numbers (7/3)
Cabinet reshuffle and the principle-agent problem (6/3)
The energy transition is coming, whether it is just or not (3/3)
Indicators show loadshedding is starting to hurt (2/3)
Making sense of the unemployment numbers (1/3)
Greylisting crisis, or is it priced in already? (28/2)
Factors that cause the rand to weaken (27/2)
What the new minimum wage means for workers and employers (24/2)
Budget 2023 (23/2)
The Budget and Eskom’s debt – today sees the mother of all bailouts (22/2)
How to listen to the budget speech like an economist (21/2)
What the Budget can and cannot do (20/2)
The importance of getting the basics right (17/2)
Inflation is down but not out (16/2)
The economics of Valentine’s day (15/2)
Why is the rand weaker now? (14/2)
What do the indicators show? (13/2)
If you missed the SONA (10/2)
Is there an investment strike? (9/2)
The President’s to-do list and Thursday’s SONA (8/2)
Under how much pressure are consumers? (7/2)
What happens in the U.S. does not stay there (6/2)
All the indicators that matter (3/2)
Loadshedding and economic growth prospects (2/2)
Global growth prospects are like a (small) wave, but SA runs the risk of missing it (1/2)
Indicators to keep an eye on this week (31/1)
For which drivers of economic growth should you keep your fingers crossed? (30/1)
If you don’t like the repo rate increase, what is the alternative? (27/1)
The 25 or 50 repo rate decision (26/1)
Loadshedding – should diesel be subsidised for SMEs? (25/1)
The impact of loadshedding on agriculture (24/1)
Two more years of loadshedding (you should get the solar panels) (23/1)
This week’s indicators show how tough things are becoming (20/1)
Inflation is down a bit, but will it convince the MPC? (19/1)
Changing the SARB’s mandate is a bad idea (18/1)
Inflation expectations and the next repo decision (17/1)
Economic growth prospects 2023 (16/1)
Inflation, shrinkflation and basis effects (15/12)
The fundamental drivers of growth (14/12)
The drivers of economic growth (13/12)
The economy (and the indicators that I talk about) affects us all (12/12)
Confidence indices pointing in all directions (9/12)
Thank the farmers, agriculture made the difference (8/12)
The economy grew in the third quarter! (7/12)
Growth and growth prospects (6/12)
This week’s indicators (5/12)
The gross domestic politics (2/12)
How import tariffs increase the prices you and I pay (1/12)
The unemployment rate was lower in Q3 (30/11)
International indicators (29/11)
The indicators at the end of November (28/11)
Are we close to a peak repo rate? (25/11)
50, 75 or 100 basis points? (24/11)
Why is the sovereign yield curve so steep? (23/11)
This week’s indicators are about inflation and the repo rate (22/11)
Why SA’s credit rating matters (21/11)
High-frequency cargo movement data shows the global economy slowing (18/11)
Policy uncertainty causes load-shedding (17/11)
Retail sales data, consumers under pressure and Black Friday (16/11)
Grain farmers are facing a cost squeeze (15/11)
When will the interest rate increases end? (14/11)
Indicators pointing in all directions (11/11)
Agriculture indicators to be positive about (10/11)
What the COP27 summit means for your household and business (9/11)
COP27 and how economists think about climate change (8/11)
What US non-farm payroll data tells us about the repo rate (7/11)
Spending credibility matters for the refinancing of public debt (4/11)
The Fed goes for another 75 bps increase (3/11)
It is difficult to say how the economy is doing (2/11)
The indicators to keep an eye on this week (1/11)
For whom the bell e-tolls (31/10)
The mini-budget and Eskom’s debt (28/10)
The mini-budget was a win for the Minister (27/10)
Our fiscal policy worries (26/10)
The mini-“feel good” budget (25/10)
What you need to know about this week’s mini-budget (24/10)
A last word on inflation (for now) (21/10)
Turns out there was a little bit of good news about inflation (20/10)
It is dangerous to listen to lots of podcasts about inflation (19/10)
I am sorry I don’t have better news about inflation (18/10)
The Transnet strike, inflation, uncertainty and trust (17/10)
If we could tie the hands of policymakers (14/10)
Maybe the economy did OK in August, but there are worries about September (13/10)
The IMF warns of recession and inflation (12/10)
And the 2022 Nobel prize goes to (11/10)
Why the US unemployment rate is our problem (10/10)
The importance of network infrastructure services (7/10)
It seems that the chances of a soft landing are now getting slim (6/10)
New car sales and the lower petrol price make for good news (5/10)
PMI and PUI data (4/10)
Eskom, air pollution and negative externalities (3/10)
August PPI data (30/9)
“Amorphous markets” vs Reaganomics (29/9)
What the QES employment numbers mean (28/9)
International inflation and recessions fears are causing havoc (27/9)
More repo rate thoughts and the mini-budget (26/9)
The repo rate increases again (23/9)
CPI inflation is down, but the repo rate is likely to go up again (22/9)
Inflation, the exchange rate and the repo (21/9)
Stage-6 is back (20/9)
Focus on inflation (SA) and interest rates (U.S.) this week (19/9)
What will happen to the Covid grant? (16/9)
Big ideas for the economic reform agenda (15/9)
SA mining production data and a side-note on US inflation (14/9)
What influences this month’s repo rate decision? (13/9)
When will prices start to decrease? (12/9)
Business and consumer confidence mixed bag (9/9)
What happened in agriculture in the second quarter (8/9)
But what do the growth prospects look like? (7/9)
How are the UK, EU and Chinese economies doing, and what does it mean for SA? (6/9)
US data and SA indicators (5/9)
Good news from August indicators (2/9)
Food and its environmental impact (1/9)
Everyone wants reforms, but what are we willing to give up to get them? (31/8)
This week’s indicators (30/8)
Jerome Powell spoke, and what it means for the repo rate (29/8)
July’s CPI and PPI inflation rates were high (26/8)
#NationalShutdown or whatever (25/8)
The unemployment rate decreased in Q2! (24/8)
This week’s indicators will look bad (23/8)
Inflation and wages (22/8)
Consumers under pressure (19/8)
A prediction market for everything (18/8)
What game theory can tell us about the response to foot and mouth disease (17/8)
Rand will definitely maybe strengthen (16/8)
Production indicators (15/8)
Women economists that you should follow (12/8)
The wins and woes of international trade (11/8)
U.S. jobs and inflation numbers matter for us all (10/8)
Economic growth in SA – the demand-side indicators (9/8)
Economic growth in SA – the supply-side indicators (8/8)
There has been an uptick in investment (5/8)
A wealth tax to fund a BIG? (4/8)
PMI and Naamsa numbers (3/8)
The ANC policy (uncertainty) conference (2/8)
What happens at the Fed… (1/8)
The PPI and the inflation outlook (29/7)
The IMF’s economic growth forecasts (28/7)
The leading indicator of the business cycle (27/7)
Inflation expectations are up, but not too far from the target band (26/7)
The Big Mac index shows that the rand is significantly undervalued (25/7)
The repo rate is increased by 75 basis points (22/7)
Inflation is up and today’s repo rate decision is crucial (21/7)
A new measure of how the economy is doing (20/7)
How are the upside inflation risks weighed? (19/7)
Inflation and a repo rate decision (18/7)
The economics of flight tickets to Cape Town (15/7)
This week’s data shows production and consumption slowing in May (14/7)
How to save some money (13/7)
Why is the rand depreciating? (12/7)
Eskom and the public debt (11/7)
Recession or soft landing? (8/7)
Meanwhile in Zimbabwe (7/7)
What policy trade-offs do you prefer? (6/7)
When economists make predictions (5/7)
The cost of stage-6 loadshedding (4/7)
A round-up of this week’s indicators (1/7)
Consumers under pressure (30/6)
QES employment numbers (and a focus on construction) (29/6)
How consumers are doing (28/6)
The week in (economics) data (27/6)
Are there other ways to reduce inflation? (24/6)
What the inflation rate means for July’s repo rate decision (23/6)
This is not investment advice (22/6)
Policies in China that will affect the SA economy (21/6)
Comparing the causes of inflation (20/6)
This week’s indicator: US interest rates (17/6)
Youth day 2022 (16/6)
Economic growth surprises (8/6)
This week’s indicators are about growth (7/6)
What an economic experiment says about working from home (6/6)
Round-up of the week’s indicators (3/6)
The trade-offs of fuel price relief (2/6)
Can a wage subsidy be part of the tools in the fight against unemployment? (1/6)
QLFS data and the unemployment rate (31/5)
Should you worry about food shortages? (30/5)
Cost-push inflation (27/5)
When the U.S. sneezes (26/5)
The economy is doing OK? (25/5)
The cost of loadshedding (24/5)
Resilient investment? Apparently. (23/5)
What the MPC decided, and why (20/5)
Inflation steady at 5.9% and the repo rate decision today (19/5
Fuel prices, household debt, no-name brands (18/5)
Should we not just let inflation go a bit? (17/5)
Inflation and interest rates (16/5)
This week’s indicators (13/5)
Chinese lockdowns have consequences across the world (12/5)
Managers matter (11/5)
Prospects for the agriculture sector (10/5)
Are wage expectations fueling inflation (yet)? (9/5)
What will happen the Rand next (6/5)
What can we do to prevent stagflation? (5/5)
How is the economy doing? (4/5)
Buy organic, save lives (3/5)
Pink tax on women? (2/5)
Carbon tax on your long weekend plans (29/4)
Is there really nothing to celebrate on Freedom Day? (28/4)
Radical policy talk for Freedom Day (27/4)
Indicators round-up (26/4)
What we lost in the flood (25/4)
Investing in collectables (22/4)
Prices are increasing, but are there second-round effects? (21/4)
From loadshedding to energy security? (20/4)
War = (economic) uncertainty (19/4)
Should we be worried about a recession in the US? (18/4)
Playing chicken with food prices (14/4)
The state of the roads and the economy (13/4)
Indicators round-up (12/4)
Food commodity prices are at an all-time high (11/4)
Progress towards development goals (8/4)
The robots are coming (7/4)
Policy uncertainty increased in Q1 (6/4)
Yield curve indicator (5/4)
Indicators good news to start the week (4/4)
Indicators: Private sector credit extension and more (1/4)
The Household Affordability Index puts the macro numbers into perspective (31/3)
So, employment and unemployment increased (how does that work?) (30/3)
Record unemployment (29/3)
Indicators round-up (28/3)
SA’s fourth investment conference (25/3)
The repo rate decision (24/3)
Inflation scenarios (23/3)
Pollution is a negative externality (22/3)
The economics of public holidays (21/3)
Consumer indicators (18/3)
Spectrum auctions (17/3)
Tapping the brakes just so (16/3)
This week’s indicators (15/3)
Inequality and the tax base (14/3)
U.S. inflation and interest rates (11/3)
When infrastructure matters (10/3)
Economic growth numbers (9/3)
GDP numbers and interest rate expectations (8/3)
Let’s reduce the domestic uncertainties (7/3)
Economic warfare (4/3)
Should we forget about economic recovery? (3/3)
Job reservation is bad economics (2/3)
How is the SA economy doing? (1/3)
What war in Ukraine means for the SA economy (28/2)
A few last thoughts on the Budget (25/2)
A good day for the Minister of Finance (24/2)
What Budget Speech history can teach us (23/2)
How to listen to the Budget Speech, like an economist (22/2)
What reforms do we need? (21/2)
I will catch up with uploading the episodes from the missed two weeks here.
This week’s indicators (4/2)
How do you spend a windfall? (3/2)
The CPI basket changes (2/2)
Fuel prices are rising again (1/2)
End of January, how is the economy doing? (31/1)
The week’s indicators (27/1)
Do it for policy credibility (26/1)
The case for a BIG (26/1)
Should we extend the SARB’s mandate? (25/1)
Will the World Bank loan help South Africa? (24/1)
Mining production and retail sales data (21/1)
Inflation increased (and the repo rate will probably increase as well) (20/1)
Only 33% of SMEs are confident that they are going to grow this year (19/1)
More indicators to keep an eye on this week (18/1)
Interest rates will have to increase (17/1)
Policy uncertainty decreased in Q4 (14/1)
Manufacturing production and vehicle sales data (13/1)
The fiscal story of the fire at Parliament (12/1)
Clues about how the economy is doing (11/1)
How the US job market affects the SA economy (10/1)
How predictions are made (7/1)
When economists study corruption (6/1)
Interesting predictions for 2022 (5/1)
Inflation and interest rates in 2022 (4/1)
The start of 2022 (3/1/2022)
The IMF warns that urgent reforms are needed (10/12)
So by how much did the economy shrink? (9/12)
Recession in the third quarter (8/12)
The impact on growth (7/12)
This week’s indicators will show how the economy is doing (6/12)
The week’s other economic indicators (3/12)
Are there any solutions to the unemployment problem? (2/12)
The unemployment rate is scary and likely to get worse (1/12)
Unemployment data today (30/11)
The Omnicron variant and the economy (29/11)
Carrots and sticks? Vooma vouchers and NSFAS 75% proposal (26/11)
Business confidence remains low (25/11)
Why the rand is under pressure (24/11)
Food price inflation (23/11)
The economic news we missed last week (22/11)
The repo rate increases (19/11)
Inflation holding steady (18/11)
The foreign factors influencing tomorrow‘s repo rate decision (17/11)
The repo decision – the domestic considerations (16/11)
This week’s repo rate decision (15/11)
Does the mini-budget represent one side in a war of ideas within government? (12/11)
The Minister holds the line (11/11)
Mini-budget, talking the talk (10/11)
Growth prospects matter for the Budget (9/11)
What can we expect in Thursday’s MTBPS? (8/11)
The MTBPS and public debt (4/11)
The MTBPS and grants (3/11)
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