The Economics Minute

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The Economics Minute is a real podcast.

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Last week’s data (5/6)

WHERE economic activity happens also matters (2/6)

What SA’s 1980s debt crisis tells us about today’s issues (1/6)

Warning lights flashing in the FSR (31/5)

The buck stops here (30/5)

What happened to the rand last week? (29/5)

What the MPC says (26/5)

I hope I am wrong about today’s repo rate decision (25/5)

Inflation should be lower already (24/5)

What the US debt stand-off means for us (23/5)

Why this week’s repo rate decision matters (22/5)

By the numbers (19/5)

Are municipalities too big to fail? (18/5)

Q1 unemployment (17/5)

What the three gaps tell us (16/5)

What is worse than loadshedding? (15/5)

The rand stumbles (12/5)

The fiscal stance is under pressure too (11/5)

Food security, subsistence farming and grants (10/5)

Policy is made under constraints (9/5)

Are we at the end of the interest rate hiking cycle? (8/5)

Do you think loadshedding will end this year? (5/5)

Car sales tell us a lot about how the economy is doing (4/5)

Indicator: PMI (3/5)

Indicator: Credit extension (2/5)

The future of work, on Workers Day (1/5)

Indicator: March PPI (28/4)

On Freedom Day (27/4)

Productivity matters (26/4)

Just slow growth, or a technical recession? (25/4)

The condition our condition is in (electricity edition) (24/4)

Are you selling the country short (21/4)

Higher inflation, brought to you by loadshedding (20/4)

The dangers of a low-growth trap (19/4)

Inflation in March (18/4)

All the news that matters (17/4)

e-toll 2023 (14/4)

Indicators: Slower growth ahead (13/4)

Investment conferences and policy uncertainty (12/4)

Not a failed state, but are we back in 1991? (11/4)

South Africa is not a failed state (6/4)

Indicators: PMI and vehicle sales (5/4)

Government finances are looking OK (4/4)

Food security and hunger (3/4)

The 50bps increase in the repo rate surprised everyone (31/3)

Prices of basic foodstuffs and the Competition Commission (30/3)

Policy uncertainty is way up (29/3)

Everything points to a 25bps repo rate increase (28/3)

The wage ceiling vs the salary increases (27/3)

The hits just keep on coming (24/3)

CPI inflation is up again (23/3)

Reconsidering growth after human rights day (22/3)

Waiting for the base effect (21/3)

Price stability or financial stability? (20/3)

Indicators: Retail sales and agribusiness confidence (17/3)

And what about the inflation rate? (16/3)

Indicators: Manufacturing and mining contracted in January (15/3)

The start of a banking crisis, or the slow deflation of the second tech bubble? (14/3)

The US labour market remains tight (13/3)

The weaker rand is not only about loadshedding (10/3)

Business confidence takes a loadshedding hit (9/3)

It is official, loadshedding kills economic growth (8/3)

There are two reasons to keep an eye on today’s Q4 GDP numbers (7/3)

Cabinet reshuffle and the principle-agent problem (6/3)

The energy transition is coming, whether it is just or not (3/3)

Indicators show loadshedding is starting to hurt (2/3)

Making sense of the unemployment numbers (1/3)

Greylisting crisis, or is it priced in already? (28/2)

Factors that cause the rand to weaken (27/2)

What the new minimum wage means for workers and employers (24/2)

Budget 2023 (23/2)

The Budget and Eskom’s debt – today sees the mother of all bailouts (22/2)

How to listen to the budget speech like an economist (21/2)

What the Budget can and cannot do (20/2)

The importance of getting the basics right (17/2)

Inflation is down but not out (16/2)

The economics of Valentine’s day (15/2)

Why is the rand weaker now? (14/2)

What do the indicators show? (13/2)

If you missed the SONA (10/2)

Is there an investment strike? (9/2)

The President’s to-do list and Thursday’s SONA (8/2)

Under how much pressure are consumers? (7/2)

What happens in the U.S. does not stay there (6/2)

All the indicators that matter (3/2)

Loadshedding and economic growth prospects (2/2)

Global growth prospects are like a (small) wave, but SA runs the risk of missing it (1/2)

Indicators to keep an eye on this week (31/1)

For which drivers of economic growth should you keep your fingers crossed? (30/1)

If you don’t like the repo rate increase, what is the alternative? (27/1)

The 25 or 50 repo rate decision (26/1)

Loadshedding – should diesel be subsidised for SMEs? (25/1)

The impact of loadshedding on agriculture (24/1)

Two more years of loadshedding (you should get the solar panels) (23/1)

This week’s indicators show how tough things are becoming (20/1)

Inflation is down a bit, but will it convince the MPC? (19/1)

Changing the SARB’s mandate is a bad idea (18/1)

Inflation expectations and the next repo decision (17/1)

Economic growth prospects 2023 (16/1)

Inflation, shrinkflation and basis effects (15/12)

The fundamental drivers of growth (14/12)

The drivers of economic growth (13/12)

The economy (and the indicators that I talk about) affects us all (12/12)

Confidence indices pointing in all directions (9/12)

Thank the farmers, agriculture made the difference (8/12)

The economy grew in the third quarter! (7/12)

Growth and growth prospects (6/12)

This week’s indicators (5/12)

The gross domestic politics (2/12)

How import tariffs increase the prices you and I pay (1/12)

The unemployment rate was lower in Q3 (30/11)

International indicators (29/11)

The indicators at the end of November (28/11)

Are we close to a peak repo rate? (25/11)

50, 75 or 100 basis points? (24/11)

Why is the sovereign yield curve so steep? (23/11)

This week’s indicators are about inflation and the repo rate (22/11)

Why SA’s credit rating matters (21/11)

High-frequency cargo movement data shows the global economy slowing (18/11)

Policy uncertainty causes load-shedding (17/11)

Retail sales data, consumers under pressure and Black Friday (16/11)

Grain farmers are facing a cost squeeze (15/11)

When will the interest rate increases end? (14/11)

Indicators pointing in all directions (11/11)

Agriculture indicators to be positive about (10/11)

What the COP27 summit means for your household and business (9/11)

COP27 and how economists think about climate change (8/11)

What US non-farm payroll data tells us about the repo rate (7/11)

Spending credibility matters for the refinancing of public debt (4/11)

The Fed goes for another 75 bps increase (3/11)

It is difficult to say how the economy is doing (2/11)

The indicators to keep an eye on this week (1/11)

For whom the bell e-tolls (31/10)

The mini-budget and Eskom’s debt (28/10)

The mini-budget was a win for the Minister (27/10)

Our fiscal policy worries (26/10)

The mini-“feel good” budget (25/10)

What you need to know about this week’s mini-budget (24/10)

A last word on inflation (for now) (21/10)

Turns out there was a little bit of good news about inflation (20/10)

It is dangerous to listen to lots of podcasts about inflation (19/10)

I am sorry I don’t have better news about inflation (18/10)

The Transnet strike, inflation, uncertainty and trust (17/10)

If we could tie the hands of policymakers (14/10)

Maybe the economy did OK in August, but there are worries about September (13/10)

The IMF warns of recession and inflation (12/10)

And the 2022 Nobel prize goes to (11/10)

Why the US unemployment rate is our problem (10/10)

The importance of network infrastructure services (7/10)

It seems that the chances of a soft landing are now getting slim (6/10)

New car sales and the lower petrol price make for good news (5/10)

PMI and PUI data (4/10)

Eskom, air pollution and negative externalities (3/10)

August PPI data (30/9)

“Amorphous markets” vs Reaganomics (29/9)

What the QES employment numbers mean (28/9)

International inflation and recessions fears are causing havoc (27/9)

More repo rate thoughts and the mini-budget (26/9)

The repo rate increases again (23/9)

CPI inflation is down, but the repo rate is likely to go up again (22/9)

Inflation, the exchange rate and the repo (21/9)

Stage-6 is back (20/9)

Focus on inflation (SA) and interest rates (U.S.) this week (19/9)

What will happen to the Covid grant? (16/9)

Big ideas for the economic reform agenda (15/9)

SA mining production data and a side-note on US inflation (14/9)

What influences this month’s repo rate decision? (13/9)

When will prices start to decrease? (12/9)

Business and consumer confidence mixed bag (9/9)

What happened in agriculture in the second quarter (8/9)

But what do the growth prospects look like? (7/9)

How are the UK, EU and Chinese economies doing, and what does it mean for SA? (6/9)

US data and SA indicators (5/9)

Good news from August indicators (2/9)

Food and its environmental impact (1/9)

Everyone wants reforms, but what are we willing to give up to get them? (31/8)

This week’s indicators (30/8)

Jerome Powell spoke, and what it means for the repo rate (29/8)

July’s CPI and PPI inflation rates were high (26/8)

#NationalShutdown or whatever (25/8)

The unemployment rate decreased in Q2! (24/8)

This week’s indicators will look bad (23/8)

Inflation and wages (22/8)

Consumers under pressure (19/8)

A prediction market for everything (18/8)

What game theory can tell us about the response to foot and mouth disease (17/8)

Rand will definitely maybe strengthen (16/8)

Production indicators (15/8)

Women economists that you should follow (12/8)

The wins and woes of international trade (11/8)

U.S. jobs and inflation numbers matter for us all (10/8)

Economic growth in SA – the demand-side indicators (9/8)

Economic growth in SA – the supply-side indicators (8/8)

There has been an uptick in investment (5/8)

A wealth tax to fund a BIG? (4/8)

PMI and Naamsa numbers (3/8)

The ANC policy (uncertainty) conference (2/8)

What happens at the Fed… (1/8)

The PPI and the inflation outlook (29/7)

The IMF’s economic growth forecasts (28/7)

The leading indicator of the business cycle (27/7)

Inflation expectations are up, but not too far from the target band (26/7)

The Big Mac index shows that the rand is significantly undervalued (25/7)

The repo rate is increased by 75 basis points (22/7)

Inflation is up and today’s repo rate decision is crucial (21/7)

A new measure of how the economy is doing (20/7)

How are the upside inflation risks weighed? (19/7)

Inflation and a repo rate decision (18/7)

The economics of flight tickets to Cape Town (15/7)

This week’s data shows production and consumption slowing in May (14/7)

How to save some money (13/7)

Why is the rand depreciating? (12/7)

Eskom and the public debt (11/7)

Recession or soft landing? (8/7)

Meanwhile in Zimbabwe (7/7)

What policy trade-offs do you prefer? (6/7)

When economists make predictions (5/7)

The cost of stage-6 loadshedding (4/7)

A round-up of this week’s indicators (1/7)

Consumers under pressure (30/6)

QES employment numbers (and a focus on construction) (29/6)

How consumers are doing (28/6)

The week in (economics) data (27/6)

Are there other ways to reduce inflation? (24/6)

What the inflation rate means for July’s repo rate decision (23/6)

This is not investment advice (22/6)

Policies in China that will affect the SA economy (21/6)

Comparing the causes of inflation (20/6)

This week’s indicator: US interest rates (17/6)

Youth day 2022 (16/6)

Economic growth surprises (8/6)

This week’s indicators are about growth (7/6)

What an economic experiment says about working from home (6/6)

Round-up of the week’s indicators (3/6)

The trade-offs of fuel price relief (2/6)

Can a wage subsidy be part of the tools in the fight against unemployment? (1/6)

QLFS data and the unemployment rate (31/5)

Should you worry about food shortages? (30/5)

Cost-push inflation (27/5)

When the U.S. sneezes (26/5)

The economy is doing OK? (25/5)

The cost of loadshedding (24/5)

Resilient investment? Apparently. (23/5)

What the MPC decided, and why (20/5)

Inflation steady at 5.9% and the repo rate decision today (19/5

Fuel prices, household debt, no-name brands (18/5)

Should we not just let inflation go a bit? (17/5)

Inflation and interest rates (16/5)

This week’s indicators (13/5)

Chinese lockdowns have consequences across the world (12/5)

Managers matter (11/5)

Prospects for the agriculture sector (10/5)

Are wage expectations fueling inflation (yet)? (9/5)

What will happen the Rand next (6/5)

What can we do to prevent stagflation? (5/5)

How is the economy doing? (4/5)

Buy organic, save lives (3/5)

Pink tax on women? (2/5)

Carbon tax on your long weekend plans (29/4)

Is there really nothing to celebrate on Freedom Day? (28/4)

Radical policy talk for Freedom Day (27/4)

Indicators round-up (26/4)

What we lost in the flood (25/4)

Investing in collectables (22/4)

Prices are increasing, but are there second-round effects? (21/4)

From loadshedding to energy security? (20/4)

War = (economic) uncertainty (19/4)

Should we be worried about a recession in the US? (18/4)

Playing chicken with food prices (14/4)

The state of the roads and the economy (13/4)

Indicators round-up (12/4)

Food commodity prices are at an all-time high (11/4)

Progress towards development goals (8/4)

The robots are coming (7/4)

Policy uncertainty increased in Q1 (6/4)

Yield curve indicator (5/4)

Indicators good news to start the week (4/4)

Indicators: Private sector credit extension and more (1/4)

The Household Affordability Index puts the macro numbers into perspective (31/3)

So, employment and unemployment increased (how does that work?) (30/3)

Record unemployment (29/3)

Indicators round-up (28/3)

SA’s fourth investment conference (25/3)

The repo rate decision (24/3)

Inflation scenarios (23/3)

Pollution is a negative externality (22/3)

The economics of public holidays (21/3)

Consumer indicators (18/3)

Spectrum auctions (17/3)

Tapping the brakes just so (16/3)

This week’s indicators (15/3)

Inequality and the tax base (14/3)

U.S. inflation and interest rates (11/3)

When infrastructure matters (10/3)

Economic growth numbers (9/3)

GDP numbers and interest rate expectations (8/3)

Let’s reduce the domestic uncertainties (7/3)

Economic warfare (4/3)

Should we forget about economic recovery? (3/3)

Job reservation is bad economics (2/3)

How is the SA economy doing? (1/3)

What war in Ukraine means for the SA economy (28/2)

A few last thoughts on the Budget (25/2)

A good day for the Minister of Finance (24/2)

What Budget Speech history can teach us (23/2)

How to listen to the Budget Speech, like an economist (22/2)

What reforms do we need? (21/2)

I will catch up with uploading the episodes from the missed two weeks here.

This week’s indicators (4/2)

How do you spend a windfall? (3/2)

The CPI basket changes (2/2)

Fuel prices are rising again (1/2)

End of January, how is the economy doing? (31/1)

The week’s indicators (27/1)

Do it for policy credibility (26/1)

The case for a BIG (26/1)

Should we extend the SARB’s mandate? (25/1)

Will the World Bank loan help South Africa? (24/1)

Mining production and retail sales data (21/1)

Inflation increased (and the repo rate will probably increase as well) (20/1)

Only 33% of SMEs are confident that they are going to grow this year (19/1)

More indicators to keep an eye on this week (18/1)

Interest rates will have to increase (17/1)

Policy uncertainty decreased in Q4 (14/1)

Manufacturing production and vehicle sales data (13/1)

The fiscal story of the fire at Parliament (12/1)

Clues about how the economy is doing (11/1)

How the US job market affects the SA economy (10/1)

How predictions are made (7/1)

When economists study corruption (6/1)

Interesting predictions for 2022 (5/1)

Inflation and interest rates in 2022 (4/1)

The start of 2022 (3/1/2022)

The IMF warns that urgent reforms are needed (10/12)

So by how much did the economy shrink? (9/12)

Recession in the third quarter (8/12)

The impact on growth (7/12)

This week’s indicators will show how the economy is doing (6/12)

The week’s other economic indicators (3/12)

Are there any solutions to the unemployment problem? (2/12)

The unemployment rate is scary and likely to get worse (1/12)

Unemployment data today (30/11)

The Omnicron variant and the economy (29/11)

Carrots and sticks? Vooma vouchers and NSFAS 75% proposal (26/11)

Business confidence remains low (25/11)

Why the rand is under pressure (24/11)

Food price inflation (23/11)

The economic news we missed last week (22/11)

The repo rate increases (19/11)

Inflation holding steady (18/11)

The foreign factors influencing tomorrows repo rate decision (17/11)

The repo decision – the domestic considerations (16/11)

This week’s repo rate decision (15/11)

Does the mini-budget represent one side in a war of ideas within government? (12/11)

The Minister holds the line (11/11)

Mini-budget, talking the talk (10/11)

Growth prospects matter for the Budget (9/11)

What can we expect in Thursday’s MTBPS? (8/11)

The MTBPS and public debt (4/11)

The MTBPS and grants (3/11)